Perhaps it’s too early in the season to label any fixture a genuine title decider, but this Sunday’s Manchester derby certainly has the feel of one. Manchester City and Manchester United were the firm favourites to lift the Premier League crown before a ball was kicked this season and currently find themselves first and second respectively in the Premier League table.
But perhaps more crucially, a win for Pep Guardiola’s boys will put them eleven points ahead of the rest of the league after just 16 games – an almost unassailable margin that seems only likely to further grow with so many fixtures remaining. So will Sunday’s 4.30pm kickoff prove to be the curtain call on this season’s title race? This week’s experts, Niven Marston from ManUNews and Football FanCast’s very own City fanatic Chris McMullan, share their thoughts and predictions…
If there’s one disappointment going into Sunday’s game it’s that one of the Premier League’s biggest stars will miss arguably the most important fixture on the top flight calendar. Paul Pogba saw red against Arsenal last weekend for a reckless challenge on Hector Bellerin and will serve the first of his three-game suspension when City come to town. How significant will Pogba’s absence be for United and who should replace the Frenchman in central midfield?
Niven: “It’s a huge blow to United. He is easily United’s best player, and it is clear to see just how much better the team play when he’s been involved. In previous ‘big’ games against the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool where he didn’t feature, you sensed he was utterly missed by Jose Mourinho and would’ve served as the missing piece of the jigsaw had he played. He is without a doubt the complete midfielder and is pivotal to the team on the counter – it’s a great shame he won’t be available for the derby. His replacement is likely to be Ander Herrera who will relish the opportunity to get stuck in against City. The Spaniard doesn’t offer as much diversity in midfield, but his tireless work rate is second to none.”
Guardiola, meanwhile, faces a much more favourable kind of selection dilemma – who to start in attack. To say City boast an embarrassment of riches up front would be a bit of an understatement; Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus have 32 goals and 13 assists between them already in the Premier League, while Bernardo Silva – one of Europe’s top young talents last season – has waited patiently in the wings. Who would you field in City’s frontline against United?
Chris: “This is the million dollar question for any Pep Guardiola team, certainly since he left Barcelona – just what will he see in the other team and who will he play to exploit those weaknesses. Over the last few games, we’ve seen some rotation from City, even before the Shakhtar Donetsk game, so it looks like everything over the last few weeks has been gearing up to this. One thing that stood out after the West Ham game last week was when Guardiola said that City were better when they reverted to playing with two strikers.
“Against a United side who will try to play as deep as possible and spring counters when they can, starting with Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero up front could well be an option but neither have scored a goal from open play since the Brazilian scored against Leicester five games ago. To play a front two would probably mean leaving out at least one of Leroy Sane or Raheem Sterling, with the Englishman especially on top form. For me, that makes the preferred option a front three with Aguero starting in the central role and Sane and Sterling either side, perhaps setting the game up for Gabriel Jesus to enter in the second half to bring an added spark to the attack.”
It’s impossible to ignore how incredible City have been this season. They’ve dropped just two points in the Premier League, averaged over three goals per game and played some simply scintillating football in the process. But recent outings have shown evidence of that relentless form slowing down; their last three Premier League games were all won by a single goal and they’ve kept just two clean sheets in their last nine games. This City side inevitably isn’t perfect – what weaknesses can United take advantage of?
Niven: “City are undoubtedly a much more attack-minded team than defensive. Their frailties at the back have been rare, but there are certainly one or two cracks that have started to show in Guardiola’s team. Fabian Delph has been thrown in as a makeshift left-back and although he has been impressive, you’d like to think Anthony Martial or Marcus Rashford could cause him huge problems when running at him. Also, as solid as Vincent Kompany is, I don’t believe he is still at the same level he was a few seasons ago, therefore I’d like to see him bullied too by the pace merchants United have going forward. Ultimately, I think United’s best chance of scoring past City is on the counter attack, something which won’t be as effective with Paul Pogba’s absence.”
And from a City perspective, do you also see counter-attacks as United’s best chance of scoring?
Chris: “Counter-attacks will be a problem – even without Paul Pogba – and I worry about the pace of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford. We saw last weekend that Eliaquim Mangala was outdone too easily by Marko Arnautovic, and even if the Frenchman doesn’t play at centre-back, there’s always a worry about pace. Recently, Jamie Vardy sped past Vincent Kompany who had to bring him down and risk a red card, whilst Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane caused City huge problems earlier this season, too. City’s pace at the back may well come from Kyle Walker’s back-tracking – something he did with aplomb against West Ham last weekend. But if United can get the counter-attack going, that might serve to dampen a potent attacking weapon at the very least.”
Manchester City have been so mesmerising this season, it’s almost impossible to tell where the biggest threats come from. We’ve already discussed their frightening attacking cast, but lining up behind those are Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva – easily two of the best playmakers in the business – while Fernandinho is no slouch either and Kyle Walker has been a real force down the right-hand side since arriving from Tottenham Hotspur. Which City player is capable of causing the most damage to United?
Niven:”De Bruyne and Silva will undoubtedly be City’s men to watch. We all know how good De Bruyne is on his day, arguably one of the best players in the world. And it’s fair to say we often take for granted just how good David Silva is for City. Combined with the brilliant form that Raheem Sterling is producing at the moment, United’s defence certainly have a huge task on their hands.”
What key factor will decide this game?
Chris: “I think United’s ability to link their – probably very deep – defence with their pacey attackers in the absence of Paul Pogba will be the key to this game. If they can do that, City will have to think about counter-attacks. If they can’t, it could be a case of attack against defence. If that happens, then it’ll be all about whether Guardiola’s side can stay patient and believe that the opening will come, just as they’ve done all season – and they’ve never failed to score.”
And finally lads, let’s hear your score predictions…
Niven: “1-3 City”
Chris: “1-2. On the basis that United will probably need to score to get anything out of this game at all, I think they will end up leaving gaps where they shouldn’t. And if there’s one team in the league who can exploit that, it’s the one with Kevin de Bruyne and an on-fire Raheem Sterling.”
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